Gmail addresses have become pretty competitive.
My Top 5 Artists (Week Ending 2010-5-16) -
Imported from Last.fm Tumblr by JoeLaz
I read Seth Godin’s blog every day and for some reason I never share my favorite parts from it. Yesterday’s post on Who is Easily Manipulated had one point that stuck out to me:
Allowing the clothes of the messenger (a uniform, a suit and tie, a hat) to influence your perception of the information he delivers (add gender, fame, age and race to this too).
Richard Feynman talks about his ability to evaluate statements from messengers , whether it was his cab driver or a 5 star general he was consulting. The key is not to fake it and to be confident in what you do know.
Yeasayer at Webster Hall
Tom Verducci on the Decline of Contact in MLB -
Thanks Trevor for sending this over.
My Top 5 Artists (Week Ending 2010-5-2) -
Imported from Last.fm Tumblr by JoeLaz
My Top 5 Artists (Week Ending 2010-4-25) -
Imported from Last.fm Tumblr by JoeLaz
My friend Joe didn’t take a pitcher until the 6th round of our fantasy baseball draft. As of now, he has the second most productive pitching staff in our league. Sure a lot can change, but I was interested to hear his approach when evaluating pitchers using this strategy; contact rates. We talked about this a bit more and have come up with some non-mainstream stats to help find diamonds in the rough:
We had both talked about using BABIP to locate some pitchers that may have been unlucky in 2009, but that by itself is not that helpful. Looking at total contact % and total contact % on strikes gives you great insight into how good a pitcher’s stuff is. Low contact % overall shows that hitters swing and miss often. Low contact % on strikes show that hitters swing and miss often on strikes. If you look at only these two, you see some familiar faces at the top of both lists (Sabbathia, Lincecum etc…). But there are some pitchers listed that not many fantasy owners would consider elite: Jonathan Sanchez, Max Scherzer, Cole Hamels, Ryan Dempster, or Ubaldo Jiminez. None of these guys are unknowns, but they weren’t going in the first 6 rounds of most fantasy drafts either.
One thing contact rates don’t take into account are a pithcer’s control, which is why I suggested we add in total % strikes and Walk/K ratios. You would expect these numbers to be worse for younger players who are still mastering the strike zone, and having bad control ratios usually translates to poor overall performance. However if there is any reason to believe that bad numbers on these stats are trending upwards, mixed with strong rankings on contact %, you have a potential breakout (Jonathan Sanchez).
Lastly BABIP is useful in evaluating how lucky a pitcher was. The analysis is based on the assumption that pitchers can’t control whether a ball is a base hit or not once the ball is put in play. BABIP measures the batting average against pitchers of all balls put in play. So if it isn’t the pitchers fault that a ball put in play is an out or a hit, unusually high BABIP would suggest that a pitcher was unlucky compared to the average. Likewise a low BABIP would suggest a pitcher was lucky, which should also be taken into account.
So what’s the point? Most fantasy owners don’t look at these stats when evaluating draft position. If you play in a standard 5x5 league, Strikeouts, Wins, ERA, and WHIP are what you care about for starting pitchers. If you start looking at contact rates, control stats, and how lucky a pitcher is, you may be able to do two things: wait longer for pitching than the rest of the league, and draft pitchers late in the draft with high upside to perform like a second or third round draft pick. If you aren’t looking at statistics outside of the scoring stats for a 5x5 league, then it is hard to find an edge against your peers. This probably won’t win you the league, and it isn’t a full proof predictor, but mixed with normal scouting it can help you make better late round picks.
I started following Ari and have been inspired to update my Tumblr theme. Hopefully I can get it out by the end of this week. I like his clean look and uniform side bar (no plugins etc…). Let me know if there is anything that annoys you with this current theme or if you have any cool ideas that would make reading better for you.
With the bleacher creatures.
[video]
Globe made global warming.
Iceland, yesterday. via
Baseball Tonight on the Astros -
I can relate to all of the Mets fans here in New York now. This sucks.