Looking at my fantasy rankings this year and my awful performance across 3 leagues I think I found three problems in my approach this year that should be easy to fix for next season.  The first was my draft preparation. 

This season, for the first time, not only did I come up with my own rankings for players, I projected the top 25-50 players across the NFL at each position.  While it is good to be prepared, there is such thing as being over prepared and  over confident.

Advantages

• I had a VERY complete knowledge of players previous fantasy value.
• I located several players who I believed were undervalued in pre-season mock drafts.
• I ranked players based on MY research.  I knew I could trust the results of my rankings and the methodology behind them.

Disadvantages

• With all this knowledge I felt it necessary to go out on a limb on too many of the rankings.  I wanted to prove to myself that I could out predict other experts.  The consensus is by no means perfect, but there is a reason for LT and Manning being ranked first at their position every year. (I did pick Brady to be the top preforming QB though!)
• I felt comfortable in my analysis of ‘sleeper’ candidates to the point of personally preferring them over more proven players.
• I burned myself out doing the rankings followed by three drafts.  I wasn’t particularly sharp for two of the drafts.
• This was my first time projecting stats and ranking fantasy players.  I should have relied more on others projections that showed solid results in the past.  Classic case of doing too much.
• I’m not an expert…yet.

Basically I found myself drafting my ‘sleeper’ choices at too many positions.  I also exposed myself to certain players in multiple leagues.  Example:  I was high on Philip Rivers.  I did NOT have him ranked in the top 6 QB’s but I liked his upside.  I drafted him in 2 of my 3 leagues and got burned in both with no adequate backup.  Lesson: If you take a sleeper, back him up with a veteran who you know is going to get playing time.  Guys like John Kitna may not be the best choice, but they are nice to fall back on.

Even in the early rounds I found myself bumping players like Reggie Bush ahead of their general consensus ranking because I had a gut feeling.  Well you might have a more intelligent gut than I do, because mine hates statistics and apparently hates to win fantasy games.

Yes, following this advice strictly may make you miss out on Randy Moss because you drafted Tory Holt, or Adrian Petersen (Vikings) because you went safe with a #1 RB with less upside (Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson) but your early round draft picks should not be put in jeopardy with sleeper picks.  If you could wait and get Moss in the 5-8th rounds, then make your move.  But if you take Moss in the 3rd you are probably just as likely to take Vernon Davis in the 5th round and claim victory over the idiots who stuck with Todd Heap or Jason Witten.  From my limited experience, save the sleepers for after the 5th round.

If you do your own rankings, don’t try too hard to be unique.  It’s nice to be the guy who made the unpopular call and got it right, but it is better to win games. 

As with anything else, balance your risky picks with proven players.  And your (my) gut?  I called Moss and Brady, but I also called Vernon Davis, Philip Rivers, Lee Evans, Frank Gore (ranked 3rd overall..he was more consensus than the others) and Vince Young.  Hopefully yours is better than mine.

Next: Hopelessness…and being afraid of transactions